Asymptosis: Always Approaching

Tag: vote

  • Study Sez: Rich States Are Full of Swingers

    No, I’m not commenting on their sexual mores. I’m talking swing voters. A new study (PDF) by Joe Stone and Steve Hayes suggests that most or all of the market-crash-fueled movement to Obama in these closing weeks is likely to be in rich states. If you’re thinking battlegrounds/close contests, that means Colorado, Virgina, and Nevada.…

  • Everything Sez: “Obama Landslide.” What Gives?

    Update: If you're looking for conservative polling, click here. We all know that national polls tell us nothing about what's gonna happen in November. (See, for instance, this very funny post.) But still. The national polls seem way out of synch with every other indicator. Obama and McCain have been nearly tied for months (with…

  • White Married Christians: The Decline and Fall of the GOP

    The most compelling demographic analysis I've seen lately: Alan Abramowitz's "The Incredible Shrinking Republican Base" on Real Clear Politics. Short story: White Married Christians–the combined demographic–is and has been the base of Republicans' victories. Ignore income. Ignore gender. Ignore age. If you're white, married, and Christian, the odds are six or seven in ten that…

  • Hillary: It’s Over. Obama: It’s McCain, Stupid. Ignore Hillary.

    I actually mean no disrespect to my preferred candidate, or to Hillary, neither of whom who is anything like stupid. Just misquoting Carville. 1. As Mark Schmitt points out,  there’s no way Hillary will get a lead in the popular vote. (Andrew Sullivan: “The logic behind this seems inescapable to me.”) 2. As I pointed…