Asymptosis: always approaching
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More on the Labor Force Surge and 70s Stagflation
There’s great discussion out there on this topic, see Steve Randy Waldman’s links list here. Karl Smith gives us this graph and asks: I mean, honestly, would you look at the graph above and conclude that during the 1970s the economy dangerously overheated. I’d like to offer a perhaps more useful (though more complicated) look.…
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Did the Baby Boom Labor Force Surge Cause The Great Inflation?
Steve Randy Waldman delivers another Aha! post (and a followup reply to Scott Sumner) pointing out a huge driver of the 1970s Great Inflation — the rise in the labor force: Between the mid 60s and the mid 70s, the labor force grew by 30%.* Steve, emphasis mine: The root cause of the high-misery-index 1970s was…
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Sumner: Has CPI Been Wildly Overstating Inflation?
Scott Sumner makes a very good point (though my interest here is somewhat peripheral to the main thrust of his post): Government price indices don’t measure the prices that are of macroeconomic interest. For instance in the 6 years after the housing bubble peaked the US, BLS data shows housing prices rising by about 10%, while Case-Shiller…
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Specifying “Demand”: Nick Rowe Meets Steve Keen on His Own Ground
You might well ask: “Whaddaya mean by ‘his,’ buster?” Nick does a full-faith effort here (including the comments) to characterize Steve Keen’s position (aggregate demand = GDP + change in debt), using Nick’s preferred language and mental modeling. It’s a darned good effort, but I think it’s crippled (as is Steve’s construct) by a conceptual failing…
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Walras and The Carpenter
Scott Sumner nods with approbation toward this Ychuan Wang post at Noahpinion. For which hat tip I must thank him because Wang so clearly explicates what he calls the “canonical” understanding, and illustrates so perfectly the wackiness and incoherence of of the Walrasian view: Prices don’t always adjust instantly, so we can have excess supplies…
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“Incentives Matter” Says Exactly Nothing
Unlearning Econ: The story goes like this: an Israeli day care centre found that parents were picking up their children too late, so they introduced a small charge of $3 to try and disincentivise lateness. However, instead of discouraging this behaviour, the payment served to legitimise it and buy the parents piece of mind. The…
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Ryan Avent Agrees: Demand Inflation Now!
DIN. We should print up lapel buttons. I suggested this campaign some time ago: This would: • Transfer relative purchasing power (hence power) from holders of financial assets to holders of real assets — from Wall Street to Main Street — and from (relatively few) creditors to (many more) debtors. • Spur both consumption spending…
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Why Banks are “Special”: The Short Story
No, not that kind of “special.” Though it sure is tempting… Paul Krugman, Scott Sumner (seemingly unlikely bedfellows, but…), and most other mainstream economists want to argue that banks are not special — that there’s no reason for economists to understand and analyze their operations in detail, or incorporate those understandings in their (mental and formal) economic…
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Economics is the Study of Human Reaction Functions
Says John Aziz, “Economics, broadly defined, is the study of human action and interaction.” Which reminds me to post this, which has been long brewing in my head. More carefully and precisely defined, I posit the title of this post: Economics is (should be) the study of how individuals and groups react to changing circumstances (which circumstances include…
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Bleg: Fama/French on Market Size and Efficiency
Gentle Readers: I remember learning many decades ago that Fama and French’s seminal research had demonstrated that very few trades and very few traders are necessary for a market to achieve “efficiency.” (Either strong form — “the price is right” — or weak form — “individual traders can’t tell if the ‘the price is right,’…
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High-Frequency Traders are Eating Investors’ Brains. For Free!
It can be tough to articulate a cogent argument against high-frequency trading in the context of highly liquid, efficiently functioning securities markets, but I think Rajiv Sethi has done so (riffing off Michael Lewis’s typically scathing and revealing article on Goldman’s recent bad behavior). In brief, in my words: 1. Value investors are trying to buy shares in…
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Not Spending is Not Investment
I see this logical error so constantly, almost every day, that I feel the need to reiterate. Personal saving, virtuous and useful as it is for individuals, does not increase investment. This is what I call the “lump of money” fallacy (a.k.a. the loanable funds model). Ask yourself: If you transfer $10K from your bank…
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Understanding Effective Demand with Edward Lambert
A few people have asked me to provide a quick introduction to Edward Lambert’s recent work on Effective Demand, which work I’ve mentioned a few times. That’s ironic, because I made those mentions in hopes that more-accomplished others would do the same for me. That help hasn’t been forthcoming, because quite a bit of work…
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An Important New Book on Income and Wealth Inequality
I just got an email from LIS (the group that runs the Luxembourg Income Study and Luxembourg Wealth Study) giving notice of a new book: Income Inequality: Economic Disparities and the Middle Class in Affluent Countries Contrary to the title, there’s a whole section on wealth inequality. The book’s 17 chapters by 17 established researchers/research…
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The Appalachia Map, Yet Again
Lots of desperation talk these days by Republicans hoping to win future national elections by increasing their share of the “missing” white vote, while ignoring all those brown people. (Sean Trende’s piece seem to be the epicenter at this moment.) Nate Cone drives a very effective stake through the heart of that zombie ambition here, with…
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Humans’ Comparative Advantage: Wanting Things
Frances Coppola sums up and expresses a great deal of great thinking in her recent Pieria piece, The wastefulness of automation. I’d like to highlight one point, one that I’ve been pondering for a long time. There’s one area where machines — until they get sentient — can’t replace people (here from her response in comments): only…
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The So-Called Credit Crunch, Again Some More
It’s really hard to kill this meme. Note the label on this graph from today’s Free Exchange post: Now change that heading to read “Business borrowing.” Sort of gives a different impression, right? The idea that the problem’s on the supply side is pervasive, and false or at least wildly overblown. Lending rates are at…
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Asset Reflux Disease: Explaining Koo to Krugman
Or: Why Banks Aren’t Like People Steve Keen does a good job of addressing Paul Krugman’s befuddlement with Richard Koo’s balance-sheet-based thinking, here, with detailed models showing how funds flow and stocks change over time. I’d like to address it more succinctly and I hope intuitively, by pointing out a simple misunderstanding that Paul shares…
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One Place Where Mankiw Makes Absolutely No Sense at All
In his Defending the One Percent paper, Greg Mankiw is rather grudgingly acknowledging rent-seeking (and -getting) in the financial industry, and the allocation of top talent to that industry. He sez: The last thing we need is for the next Steve Jobs to forgo Silicon Valley in order to join the high-frequency traders on Wall Street.…
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What Caused the (Next) Housing Bubble? (Six Graphs)
Political Calculations gives us this chart of median new home prices versus median incomes over the last 46 years. The rising tip at the upper right (!) is May 2013. What do you think: sustainable? Here’s the zoomed-in version of recent years, from inside the red dashes: As they say, …new homes are, virtually by definition, at the…
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Steve Randy Waldman for Treasury Secretary
Just read this too-modestly titled post, and all the links as needed, until you understand it all the way down to your bones: A quick note on “helicopter drops†Kudos also to David Beckworth and Cardiff Garcia. Cross-posted at Angry Bear. Related posts: A Surfeit of Dearth Revisited: The Global Shortage of Safe Assets David Beckworth…