Category: Uncategorized
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It’s Working: Pubs’ Polls Plummeting
Give the Republicans enough rope and they’ll hang themselves? It seems to be working. Yeah, it looks like Dems have taken a hit from this whole business, as Republicans hoped they would. But like the debate in general, it’s very much not symmetrical. Combine this with the Pubs’ internal discord: are they reaching the point that…
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Currency is Equity, Equity is Currency
This is utterly brilliant: Twitter / izakaminska: Why equity is a type of privately issued currency Steve Randy Waldman has been here before, with the idea that currency issued by government (ultimately through deficit spending) is “equity” in government, or in America. But this reverses it beautifully, with the notion that private equity issuance is…
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Does Saving “Fund” Investment?
If this blog has any tiny claim to any important influence, it might be that anonymous and magisterial commenter JKH used the comments section here to first bruit his insight (both tautological and profound) that S = I + (S – I). He revisited that construct and concept again recently, and I’ll leave it to…
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Leading Economists Vote on Raising the Minimum Wage
I’m delighted to see the U Chicago IGM Forum ask a really useful, non-softball question. The panelists are evenly split on whether an increase to $9 would make it “noticeably harder for low-skilled workers to find employment.” A 4:1 majority thinks that weighing the costs and benefits, “this would be a desirable policy.” I note how…
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Republican Strategy: “When you’re playing with house money, it makes sense to go all in on every hand.”
David Atkins succinctly nails the situation we face: No matter what Obama does, Republicans won’t care and won’t fold …This is what makes the poker analogy so often used to criticize the President’s negotiating tactics such a weak metaphor. Obama is often said to be the worst poker player in history, consistently bluffing then folding. But…
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With Charity, Who Needs Taxes?
The idea that contributions to the public good, for provision of public goods, should be voluntary is certainly appealing. But I was curious about the numbers. Like most things libertarian, this notion is utopian and unrealistic. Total charitable contributions by individuals, corporations, and foundations was an estimated $298.42 billion in 2011, up 4 percent in…
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Jim Manzi: Correlation, Causation, Understanding, and Predicting
Jim Manzi, curious as always (especially about how to evaluate government policies), tries to plumb the problem of causality. Here’s where he begins: Consider two questions: – Does A cause B? – If I take action A, will it cause outcome B? I don’t care about the first, or more precisely, I might care about…
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GDP, Prosperity, The Wealth Effect, and Marginal Propensity to Consume
Comes to mind: the one about the two British ladies who meet at the Ascot races. “My dear,” says the first. “What a lovely hat. Where did you get it?” “Oh darling,” says the second, looking somewhat pained, “don’t you know, we have our hats.” It comes to mind as I ponder the rather grudging and tepid suggestions…
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How Accounting “Constrains” Economics
There’s been a running discussion of this on various blogs (sorry if I missed linking some!), inflated simultaneously by Krugman and by magisterial and mysterious commenter JKH’s “paradigm riff,” here. That discussion has brought me to the following conclusions. Assuming you have a coherent and accurately representative System of National Accounts*: • Accounting, and accounting identities,…
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Ironies Never Cease: Great Moments In Libertarian History
Why have I never posted about Yasha Levine over at The Exiled? They’re the ones that first broke this story about Koch luring Hayek to America with Social Security, and I make a point to put down my coffee when reading Yasha, to avoid expensive and embarrassing spit-takes. Just a week ago he gave us this:…
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Social Security: The Elevator Pitch
• Since Social Security started it has always brought in more money than was spent. It contributes a surplus to the total federal budget. That’s true today and will continue for quite some time. • The extra revenue needed to make SS solid far beyond the foreseeable future (75 years) is tiny: 0.6% of GDP. •…
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Economies Need a Gardener’s Invisible Hand
I haven’t posted on Nick Hanauer and Eric Liu’s stuff, and I should have, long ago. Nick, along with Bill Gates Senior, was one of the big proponents of the Washington State high-earner income tax initiative a while back (which failed utterly, I’m sad to say). As was I, in my little way. I think…
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Does Government Debt Impose a Burden on Future Generations/Periods/People? #12,143
I think (after a lot of effort) that I’ve internalized Nick Rowe’s modeling of this question (follow links from here) pretty well conceptually. His answer is Yes. There have been thousands of posts and comments across the blogosphere since Nick took Krugman to task on the issue a couple of weeks ago, and Nick has been remarkably…
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250 Billion Reasons Why the Fed Hates Inflation (and Doesn’t Care About Employment)
Let’s start with the basics: Increased inflation results in (in a sense, is) a wealth transfer from creditors to debtors. Debtors get to pay off their loans in less-valuable dollars — dollars that can’t buy as much real-world stuff, stuff that humans can consume, that they value. If you’re holding a hundred million dollars in bonds —…
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Now (Also) Blogging at Angry Bear
Just a note to my gentle readers to let you know that in future I’ll also be blogging at Angry Bear, where I’ve done a couple of guest posts over the years. It’s a great blog that I’ve been following for a long time, and I’m honored to have been invited to join the Clan…
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Economists, Sign Here: Economists’ Statement In Support of Occupy Wall Street
Economists’ Statement In Support of Occupy Wall Street Related posts: More on American Inequality and (Lack of) Opportunity Occupy Wall Street Trouncing Tea Party, 54% to 27% Tea Partiers and OWSers: Who Needs to Get a Job? #OWS is Working Banks’ “Bigger Concern”: “Republicans will no longer defend Wall Street companies.”
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Job Satisfaction and Elasticity of Labor Supply
Thinking more about Steedman’s point, that how much people (don’t) enjoy their work has a massive effect on their “utility” and welfare, I wonder this: Wouldn’t the market for higher-end jobs — which tend to deliver more job satisfaction, hence utility, hence welfare — display much lower elasticity of supply? In other words, wouldn’t changes…
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Banks’ “Bigger Concern”: “Republicans will no longer defend Wall Street companies.”
…”and might start running against them too.” What a nightmare that would be. This from the a sales pitch by lobbyist/strategy firm Clark Lytle Geduldig & Cranford to the American Bankers Association, trying to sell them on a $850,000 deal to plan the bankers’ response to OWS. HT: Barry Ritholtz Related posts: Stockman: How the GOP Destroyed the…
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Conservatives Love to Point Out that Personal Incentives Matter
And their #1 stated goal is to beat Obama in the next election. They have very strong incentives to achieve that. With that as a given, take a look at the top two economic predictors of incumbent (i.e. Obama) victory, 1948-2008, according to prediction sage Nate Silver: Conservatives/Republicans have strong incentives to make the ISM…
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More on American Inequality and (Lack of) Opportunity
The data is in, again, some more (follow links to related posts, below, for much more): high inequality correlates with low opportunity to climb (or descend) the ladder. The U.S.? Meritocracy resides elsewhere. (Think: Denmark.) the United States is among the most unequal and the least mobile of the rich countries, with about 50% of…
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#OWS is Working
In addition to sucking $4.5 billion in deposits from TBTF banks in six weeks, there’s this: Mentions of “income inequality” in the press have gone up by a factor of five. Occupy Wall Street is winning – Ben Smith – POLITICO.com. Related posts: More on American Inequality and (Lack of) Opportunity Gingrich: We’re becoming a…