Category: Politics

  • Recessions Are Nature’s Way of Keeping the Little Guy Down

    Or: Yes, The Rich Really Are Different You’ve all probably seen the depressing reports from the newly issued 2010 edition of the Fed’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finance, in particular the 39% drop in median household net worth, ’07-’10. Here’s a picture (click for larger): The well-off have done fine. In the greatest economic downturn…

  • It’s Called “Governing”

    While approximately 23% of the American public and roughly half of the political elite is hell-bent on dismantling and destroying the government that our founders and our predecessors have bequeathed unto us, using methods and theories that bear an uncanny resemblance to medieval bloodletting, I think it’s worth remembering that tens of thousands of people…

  • An Open Letter to Robert Barro

    Noahpinion points us to — and goggles in amazement at — Robert Barro’s latest op-ed in the WSJ. Why This Slow Recovery Is Like No Recovery  This prompts me to republish an open letter to Professor Barro that I posted some years ago. (To which, not surprisingly, I never received a reply.) It speaks volumes of Robert Barro’s “scholarship”…

  • Vanity, All Is Vanity. David Brooks Gets One Thing Right.

    Today (emphasis mine): Vast majorities of Americans don’t trust their institutions. That’s not mostly because our institutions perform much worse than they did in 1925 and 1955, when they were widely trusted. It’s mostly because more people are cynical and like to pretend that they are better than everything else around them. Vanity has more to…

  • Dems Need to Pay Attention to Monetary Policy!

    I’m not nearly the first to this party, but want to bring it up for my readers who may not be clued in to it. For the second year in a row, some of the best economics bloggers on the Web (this year: Matt Yglesias, Mike Konczal, Karl Smith, Lisa Donner), did a session at…

  • The Myth of the “Independent” Voter

    John Sides at The Monkey Cage makes what seems to be an incredibly important point, at least for politico types. In the latest Pew report (PDF) that everyone’s nattering about, we see a big rise in “independent” voters over the last decade (to 38%). But: only 12% of respondents did not identify with or lean…

  • I Heart Sane Conservatives!

    In a recent post I spoke with astonishment and admiration of an article/post by Ron Unz in the May issue of The American Conservative (he’s the publisher) that laid out a realistic, fact-based, cogent, and coherent portrait of our current economic situation. (I also pointed out that he 1. couched the post in an odd and unnecessarily…

  • Improper Concepts to Measure

    In the comments on my recent Home Work, GDP, and Family Values, which discusses a recent study (PDF) on the subject, Saturos points to this Arnold Kling post replying to a Timothy Taylor post summarizing that study. Saturos thinks Arnold’s post is “excellent.” I think otherwise. Arnold says “the value of household production” is an “improper concept to measure.” His reasoning: Should you measure…

  • Do Millionaires Vote with Their Feet?

    Andrew Rosenthal points us to one of the most eye-poppingly specious arguments I’ve ever seen against high-earner taxes, from Scott Hodge at the Tax Foundation (my bold). …612,520 people renounced their New York State citizenship and moved to Florida between 2000 and 2010. They took with them nearly $20 billion in adjusted gross income, after adjusting…

  • About Scaring that Confidence Fairy Away

    Here’s how: From Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers at Reuters, hat tip to Matt Yglesias. Cross-posted at Angry Bear. Related posts: John Cochrane: I Would Never Dream of Suggesting that this Correlation Implies Causation! Mitt Romney in the Big Banks’ Pocket? Pas Possible Matthew Yglesias: Do Low Taxes Cause Inflation? “No, the shareholders don’t own the…

  • Home Work, GDP, and Family Values: It’s Nice to be Validated

    A while back I put together a rough calc estimating what our country’s “home-work” is worth as a share of GDP, based on the idea that such work is production, and that it has every bit as much value to our lives as work that we get paid for. By that estimate (based on the BLS…

  • The Fed Faces the End Game — And Blinks?

    If you’ve ever been involved in a legal contention, like a business or personal dispute or a contested divorce, you know that the whole game pivots, ultimately, on the potential end game: what would happen if the thing went to court — even if (even because) everyone involved knows that it never will. The fact that…

  • Abraham Lincoln Sure Thought Majority Rule Was a Constitutional Principle

    No mean constitutional thinker, he. 364,511 American soldiers died for that principle between 1860 and 1865, after the southern states refused to go along with Lincoln’s majority-rule election. 281,881 were wounded. He coulda just rolled over. But what’d he know? He was just one of those pointy headed coastal elitist intellectuals. Oh…wait… Related posts: Just…

  • 11 Percent of the Population Can Veto Anything

    Read it here. No related posts.

  • Inflation, Credibility, and Expectations: Again Some More

    Paul Krugman rightly attacked the confidence fairy again yesterday — claiming that the unemployment of the 80s following Volcker’s tightening proves that Fed credibility doesn’t help — but I think he misfires this time. Here’s what I sed over there, with some tweaks: To be fair, Paul, isn’t the point here that in 1980 the Fed was…

  • The Top Two Criteria for Expert Judgment: Curiosity and . . . Curiosity

    First a recap: Philip Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment was a groundbreaking look at whether political experts really are expert, as judged by their success at making predictions. His overall conclusion: they aren’t. But (lifted from a previous post): …among the experts, “foxes” — those who in Nicholas Kristof’s words are “are more cautious, more centrist, more likely to…

  • U.S. Versus Europe: Who’s Winning Now?

    Now that the OECD has updated their GDP data for 2010, I thought I should revisit the question I asked a few years ago: Who’s growing faster? The U.S. or Europe? The answer’s the same as it was then: it’s a dead heat. As I pointed out in that previous post, people love to cherry-pick…

  • Conservative or Liberal? One Question to Rule them All

    I’m devastated that Christian Rudder hasn’t posted to the OKTrends blog for more than a year.* He did statistical analysis of the monstrous database of OK Cupid — a dating site that asks participants hundreds of often odd and quirky questions about themselves — to draw out conclusions about various, sundry, and often fascinating topics.…

  • Mitt Romney, American Parasite, Destroys America’s Mittelstand

    Speaking of “extractive elites,” don’t miss Pete Kotz’s cover story in the Village Voice, Mitt Romney, American Parasite. (I read it in their subsidiary Seattle Weekly.) It details a whole string of Bain purchases under Romney — thriving companies that were saddled with debt so Romney could extract cash in the form of “profits,” leaving the companies to devolve…

  • The American Conservative: “Extractive Elites” and “Macro-Corruption”

    It’s pretty amazing to read a cover story in, and by the publisher of, The American Conservative that could have run in The Nation, Mother Jones, or on Daily Kos — almost. Certainly America’s top engineers and entrepreneurs have created many of the world’s most important technologies, sometimes becoming enormously wealthy in the process. But these economic successes are…

  • Encouraging Deadly Financial Viruses

    Randall Wray highlights two great insights that arose at the annual Minsky conference last week in NYC. First Joseph Stiglitz (Wray’s words, emphasis mine): Recall that part of the reason for the creation and explosion of derivatives was to spread risk. For example, mortgage-backed securities were supposed to make the global financial system safer by…