Category: Politics

Here’s what risk looks like: Having to tell your six-year-old son that you don’t have a birthday present for him because you didn’t have any money left after buying food for the week. Telling your daughter she has to attend the semi-shitty local community college instead of the awesome out-of-state school where she was accepted…

We saw it on the “fiscal cliff”: enough House Republicans voted for the deal, along with most Democrats, to get something passed. Republicans backed down on the debt ceiling. On immigration, we’re also seeing the two parties working together to craft a solution. This feels like a possible sea change. Should Obama get credit? He’s…

These local stories in Louisiana, Kansas, Nebraska, and North Carolina speak quite eloquently for themselves. Gov. Bobby Jindal is proposing to eliminate Louisiana’s income and corporate taxes and pay for those cuts with increased sales taxes http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/01/gov_bobby_jindal_calls_for_eli.html Gov. Dave Heineman made a bold proposal … end the income tax for working Nebraskans and corporations. It…

J.W. Mason at The Slack Wire gives us a telling and trenchant analysis of that question: Short answer: They used to, but not any more. The correlation in the U.S. between fixed-capital investment and a) debt levels and b) change in debt levels has been vanishingly small since the late eighties. …in the 1960s and 70s,…

I’ve long been troubled by a Paul Krugman comment from 2008: There’s no obvious reason why consumer demand can’t be sustained by the spending of the upper class — $200 dinners and luxury hotels create jobs, the same way that fast food dinners and Motel 6s do. And I find in his concluding comment from…

With all the well-deserved attention going to Kevin Drum’s excellent Mother Jones article on crime rates and lead in gasoline (more here), I thought it worth revisiting my post on the subject from a year and a half ago, which was itself prompted by Angry Bear’s own inimitable Robert Waldmann. Government Gets the Lead Out,…

Casey Mulligan would very much like you to believe it does. “cutting unemployment insurance would increase employment, as it would end payments for people who fail to find work and would reduce the cushion provided after layoffs.” Here’s one pretty well-done data point (several, actually) suggesting that he’s wrong: In theory, greater employment protection should dampen…

The other day I looked at number of guns versus number of gun deaths by country, in countries like ours that have pretty good rule of law. The correlation is pretty clear: more guns, more gun deaths. But I was also wondering about correlation within the U.S., by state. I’m pleased to find that Sam…

When I was eighteen years old, I went down to the government office in Olympia, Washington with my friend Steve (no, not that Steve) and signed as the character witness on his application for a concealed carry permit for his handgun. I was probably stoned at the time; I often was back then. (FYI, I…

Update: There is a revised and corrected version of the model and spreadsheet here, with discussion. In a recent post I built a model with one rich person and ten poorer people to ask: does redistribution from rich to poor make us all more wealthy? The conclusion was Yes. Jump back there to see a quick…

Krugman’s leeches analogy today spurs me to comment: If the police department in your town is doing a bad job and the crime rate is high, the obvious solution is to cut funding for the police department! Sounds a lot like bloodletting theory, dontcha think? We’ll just drain off the bad blood! It’s so simple and…

Two articles in The New York Times today got me thinking about the tragedy of the commons. This is not new thinking, but it’s not widespread enough, in my opinion. And, I hope this expresses it in a somewhat new way. One of the articles talks about the ongoing failure of pharmaceutical companies to develop…

Following up on my last post, I actually think that there are two possible explanations for the “Fed Credibility” argument’s wide deployment, both hinted at in Simon’s response to my comment: I think the credibility argument is really about the underlying motives of the policymakers, rather than their abilities. However I also think that argument…

For once a short post, inspired by Simon Wren’s suggestion that the Fed should allow (encourage) a temporary rise in wage inflation. (The merits of such a policy being obvious to many of us given the current virtues of some extra inflation, and past decades’ wage trends.) I’ve never understood the credibility danger of the Fed announcing…

Today’s New York Times article on rapid online repricing by holiday retailers depicts a retail world starting to approach the “flash-trading” status of financial markets: Amazon dropped its price on the game, Dance Central 3, to $24.99 on Thanksgiving Day, matching Best Buy’s “doorbuster” special, and went to $15 once Walmart stores offered the game…

This Galbraith article — pointing to Ron Unz’s ongoing good thinking on the topic, got me thinking: If employers are faced with higher wage rates, that gives them more incentive to invest in business capital that 1. makes workers more efficient and productive, and 2. reduces the number workers they need. Is this incentive effect figured…

I’ve pointed out before that in some areas (here, Medicare), government programs are hugely more efficient and well-run than their private counterparts. I don’t know if this qualifies as one of those, but it does make a very important point that I’ve also made before: Government is not the problem. Bad government is the problem.…

Update: More expansive discussion of this model with more graphics, here. Update 2: There is a revised and corrected version of the model and spreadsheet here, with discussion. It has long seemed to me that redistribution is, for some reason, necessary for the emergence, continuance, and growth of large, prosperous, modern, high-productivity monetary economies. No such economy has ever emerged absent…